Recently, I had a brief LinkedIn exchange with few prolific LinkedIn creators @Darrell Lerner and @Konstantine Buhler that got me thinking: Is AI here to stay, or is it just another passing fad?
Before I offer my own opinion, it's important to note that some data and LN opinions from Darrell will be properly attributed. Darrell recapped that GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters, while GPT-4 has 170 trillion parameters. He also expressed his belief that AI is not a fun toy that will die out in a few months. It's here to stay and moving at the speed of light.
So, is AI here to stay? My two cents say yes, and here's why.
Firstly, unlike fads that come and go, AI started decades ago and has been growing in spurts ever since.
While many people think AI started with ChatGPT, the building blocks of AI actually began decades ago. It's only in the last decade that computing power and affordability have made it possible for AI's immense capabilities to break through towards mass consumption.
From 1957 to 1974, early algorithms like ELIZA successfully created the proof of concept. But "computers were still millions of times too weak," according to Hans Moravec.
From 1980 to 1990, Edward Feigenbaum introduced expert systems that mimicked the decision-making process of a human expert, but unfortunately, most of the ambitious algorithmic goals were not met.
From 1990 to 2010, IBM's Deep Blue defeated Gary Kasparov, a chess grandmaster, and IBM added a business flavor to AI with IBM Watson.
Finally, from 2015, OpenAI, ChatGPT, and Bard have added natural conversations to AI.
Secondly, AI is a huge enabler.
When Apple created the iPhone, businesses suddenly could run their operations on the go.
When eBay created auctions accessible to everyone, mom-and-pop shops started seeing immediate income working from a remote farm in Ohio.
With OpenAI/ChatGPT, we are already experiencing a significant jump in human productivity and potential.
For example, a software engineer can write code multiple times faster, and a creative person who could not draw can now create beautiful images.
ChatGPT is super simple to use, even for the layperson, as it is a conversational model. When a phenomenon is a mass enabler with mass adoption, it's not a fad.
Lastly, unlike other powerful technologies that are esoteric and reserved for the intelligent nerds among us, the openAI version of AI can be consumed by the masses.
Society has experienced great strides from esoteric technologies, but a technology becomes even more powerful if it's not just adoptable but also consumable by the masses. For example, even with zero AI knowledge, I can open up the latest version of Microsoft Co-pilot and get myself a nicely written email, thanks to AI.
Undoubtedly, there will be technology, legal, and business turmoil for years before the dust settles. However, I believe AI is here to stay because it is truly for the people.
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